Interesting Analysis of the Bolling-McDonnell Match in 2009

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/04/AR2008030402911_pf.html

Hillary's Big Win

First off, congrats to John McCain. I am glad we've got a nominee and that McCain can now start his general election campaign. He's got a lot of work to do and will need as much time as he can get.

I had a feeling yesterday that Hillary would win. I thought it would be close, but I felt like she would pull it off. She did and she's back in the race. This is not just a big win for Clinton, it's huge. Obama had won 11 straight contests. He had pulled ahead in the Delegate count and in national polls. The Democratic establishment was moving his way and there were calls for Hillary to drop out of the race. The fact the Hillary, facing those odds, could win in Ohio and Texas is astounding to me. The question is why.

I believe she finally found a message that resonated. And her hits on Obama finally did some damage. It wasn't the starry eyed college kids that gave her the victories. They are still with Obama. So were the liberal elite. It was the core Democrat base, the traditional working class Democrats, that put her over the top. Her new found populist message resonated with these folks. She was able to convince them that experience matters and Obama doesn't have enough of it.

There is no question that this race is far from over and Obama may win in the end. But Hillary has slowed down his momentum and picked a bit of it up herself. Now it's on to Pennsylvania.

How high will oil go before US takes action in Anwar?

Can someone please tell me why we are not drilling in Anwar, Alaska? Oil just hit $103.95 a barrel yesterday. And OPEC announced today they don’t see any need to increase production, which would lower costs. That hurts everyone. But it hurts the lower middle class and poor the worse. But our politicians, especially Democrats out of fear of the extreme environmentalists, continue to argue that Anwar is off limits. Even our presumptive Republican nominee John McCain made comments about the pristine setting. You have got to be kidding.

I doubt the average Joe is too concerned about the “pristine setting”. This illustrates the disconnect between the voters and our elected leaders in Washington. The first is worried about having enough money to fill up his gas tank to get to work. The latter is worried about the “pristine setting”. Voters have a way of refocusing priorities.

Look, I am not anti-environment. There is no question that we need a long-term clean energy development plan. We’ve got the technology to extract this oil with minimal disturbance to the surroundings. We should do it.

These high oil prices are contributing to our ailing economy. And as oil gets higher, it will be harder for us to get out of this mess. Not to mention the fact that when we buy oil from the Middle East, we are funding the other side of the War on Terror. It’s crazy!
Local, State and Federal representatives in Alaska want the drilling. The local residents want the drilling. Only a small area will be used and it will have a dramatic impact on the local economy. Lets get the oil in an environmentally friendly way and be on our way towards energy independence. It’s time.

HB 3202 Authorities Unconstitutional

It is being largely reported the the authority portion of 2007's transportation bill has been ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. I am certainly not suprised. Having voted for the bill while in the Senate, I can say it is probably one of the worst votes I ever cast. While I haven't read the details of the opinion, presumeably it leaves only the $3.0B in debt to fill a few potholes over the next couple of years. I really hated the debt portion of the bill. What is left is merely putting off truely dealing with the transportation needs of this state.

What happens next? My bet is the Governor calls a special session as soon as the budget is complete. At least he would be smart to do so! That way he can point back to the GOP for letting the bill fall apart. It would also set up the 2009 races as ones centered on transportation.

Fallout? Probably the largest injuries go out to the House Leadership and Attorney General McDonnell. For the AG to pull together Republicans in both houses to cobble together this bill then have it determined unconstitutional? It would seem he took a hit on this. He will be forced to take the lead on crafting a new alternative going into 2009. We'll see if that happens!

Judge Rules "No" on Special Election for Dowe's Seat

I just got word that a judge has ruled against a special election to fill the seat on Roanoke City Council vacated by Alfred Dowe. Outrageous. There are over 2 years left on the term and we are having a Council election this May. What sense does it make to take away the voice of the people and give it to sitting Council members to fill the vacancy? It doesn't make any sense to me.

So now the question turns to who will Council appoint? I actually think it would be a great political move for Nelson Harris to lead an effort to appoint a Republican. Yes, this City is majority Democrat, but there are a lot of Republicans too. The "at large" system of voting does a good job of keeping Republicans off Council. But does anyone really think 7 Democrats (the Independents call themselves "Independent Democrats" so I think it's fair to lump them together) and 0 Republicans makes for the best Council? It's difficult to make a case for such dominance by one party on any level of government. Harris and Company could put the good of the City above politics, and start to rehabilitate his image. I have my doubts, but we'll keep our fingers crossed.

A Book and a Movie Worth a Shot

OK. So things have been a bit heavy on the blog, what with all the scandal in Roanoke City. So I thought I would lighten things up and share a book and a movie that are worth taking a look at.

First the book. "Into Thin Air" by Jon Krakauer is one of, if not the best book I have read in years. This is a book you cannot put down. I read a lot and I don't find to many like that. Into Thin Air is a personal account of the Mt Everest disaster that occurred in 1996. But this isn't just a retelling of the story by a gifted writer. This is a first hand account. Krakauer was on the mission and nearly died himself. When you combine an incredibly gifted writer with a story so amazing and unreal, it feels like it was created in Hollywood, you get one heck of a good book.

http://www.amazon.com/Into-Thin-Air-Personal-Disaster/dp/0385494785/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1204140090&sr=8-1

Now the movie. I don't watch nearly as many movies as I used to, so when I do watch something, I want it to be good. "Once" did not let me down. This is a low budget movie, shot in Ireland. "Once" is an amazingly simple and profoundly moving film. The story revolves around the relationship of two young musicians and is set to a great original soundtrack. In fact, I think one of the songs just won an Oscar. This is a movie that actually makes you feel good when you are watching it. The only drawbacks are the heavy accents (turn that volume up!) and some curse words (maybe not the best for children to watch). Otherwise, it's perfect.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0907657/

Republicans Oppose Tax Relief. Ignore Vote Rich Northern Virginia.

In a surprising move, Senate Republicans voted against and helped to defeat the so called Homestead Exemption. The bill would have allowed localities to exempt up to 20% of a home’s value from property taxes.

This legislation is a favorite of those living in Northern Virginia, many of whom have been grappling with skyrocketing assessments and tax bills. Although, those assessments may have begun to be checked by the softening housing market.

I am left scratching my head as to why Senate Republicans would oppose this tax relief. What’s even more strange, 6 Republicans who voted for the bill in Committee--Steve Martin, Ken Stolle, Mark Obenshain, Harry Blevins, Ralph Smith, and Jill Vogel—changed their minds and voted to kill the bill on the Senate floor.

I believe it’s a mistake for our Party to ignore such an important issue in Northern Virginia. Like it or not, this region of the State can make or break a Republican candidate in a statewide election. They have been breaking a lot of them in recent years. Even Ken Cuccinelli, the lone Republican member of the Senate from NOVA, voted to kill it. I can’t imagine what would have motivated him to do so.

Roanoke Republicans Start Blog

Roanoke City Republicans have a new blog up at www.roanokegop.blogspot.com. This is a great way to share ideas about our Party and candidates. Have your voice heard!

Scandel in Roanoke City: Dowe Resigns Council Seat

The Roanoke Times is reporting that Roanoke City Councilman Alfred Dowe has resigned his seat. Last week, the paper reported on Dowe's extravagent spending habits. On this blog, I gave Dowe the benefit of the doubt, saying he may not have acted unethically, but it was certainly poor judgement. Unfortunately, I was wrong.

Dowe billed the City AND the State for expenses related to 5 trips he took to Richmond last year. We can only assume he pocketed half the money. I am not a lawyer, but this sounds like fraud to me. Dowe may be facing something far more serious than losing his seat on Council.

I am told that the Board of Elections will call a Special Election to be held on the same day as our normal Council and Mayoral elections this May. That means Roanoke City will be electing 3 Council members to a 4 year term and 1 to replace Dowe, who has 2 years left in his term.

I am sure the Demcrats will nominate a candidate. One of those that lost earlier this month at the Party's Firehouse Primary would be a safe bet.

This is a great opportunity for a Republican to run. We don't have any candidates for the 4 regular seats, so this would be a chance to redeem ourselves.

As I have mentioned before on this blog, there is no shortage of Independents interested in running. They now have to decide if they want to run for one of the 3 regular seats, or for the 1 seat in the Special Election. They may wait to see who the Democrats and Republicans nominate.

UPDATE: Roanoke City Republican Chairman Adam Boitnott has expressed interest in running as a Republican for Dowe's seat. I have known Adam for several years and consider him a friend. He would be a fine nominee for our Party and would serve us well on Council.

Are the Democrats Over Confident?

You hear it a lot in Republican circles. I've said it myself--We are in trouble this year. How can we ever hope to stop Obama's momentum? Obama will be the next President of the United States.

But it seems some on the Democrat side aren't so sure. A friend sent me this article by Steve Soto on how McCain will beat Obama. Soto is not a Republican or a McCain supporter, but I thought this was interesting.

http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/011990.php

Smaller Government. Not Anti-Government.

DJ over at the RWL is really on a roll. Two of Zak’s recent posts have got his blood boiling. Zak’s Coalitions post was the latest offender. First off, Zak has his own opinions about issues and is free to share them on this blog. Just as I do. He doesn’t speak for me and I don’t speak for him.

Since DJ lumped me into his response, I feel compelled to respond. I take offense to being called a big government guy. As a small business owner, I see first hand the effects of an over burdensome government. It’s not pleasant. And I have never had a history of supporting unnecessary government programs; DJ rightfully pointed out my post opposing Kaine’s Pre-K program. I see a Federal Government over stepping its bounds with programs like No Child Left Behind and the Prescription Drug Program. And I’ve spoken out against them.

But there is a difference between DJ and myself. I believe in smaller government. I am not anti-government as are most libertarians. I believe government plays an important role in our society. Public safety, education and transportation infrastructure come to mind. Government just needs to be kept in check.

DJ’s post is also telling as to how many in our Party view coalitions. For DJ and others, taxes are the litmus test for calling yourself a Republican. If you are solidly anti-tax in all matters, you can be a part of our Republican coalition. It’s OK if you stray on other issues like immigration or campaign finance. I think DJ’s support of McCain proves this. McCain’s support of amnesty and tough campaign finance laws have placed him out of favor with many Conservatives. But DJ is supporting McCain. And I think that’s because they are on the same page fiscally. DJ agrees with McCain on the issue most important to him.

I have met Republicans here in the Valley who are staunchly pro-life. That is the most important issue to them. If you are not pro-life, then they don’t consider you a real Republican. And again, they are willing to look the other way on issues like taxes or immigration, as long as you are pro-life.

The problem with this way of thinking is clear. If members of our coalition are only willing to accept other members who think like them on that one key issue, then we don’t really have a coalition anymore. The pro-lifers are over in this corner. The anti-taxers are over in this corner. The gun folks are in the other and so on. Yes, there is some cross over and we may work together occasionally, but we are not one unified group. And without that unity, we lose the ability to win elections.

I was surprised at the cavalier attitude in which DJ describes how the anti-tax wing has been leaving the party for years. He mentions how the anti-taxers abandoned Bush 41 for Perot in 1992 and never really supported Dole in 1996. I have heard others say they have not voted for the Party’s nominee in years. I am not aware of other groups abandoning the Republican Party in this fashion. And I don’t think it’s something to be proud of. What do you gain be leaving the table? Nothing. You just lose your place and your voice.

A small number in the Party tried to get rid of me. And they were damn near successful. But I am still here. Is the Republican Party perfect? Not by a long shot. But I think our Republican Party is the best chance for our Country and Commonwealth and that is something worth fighting for.

http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/02/21/they-still-dont-get-it/

Roanoke/NRV Young Republicans

Last night, I attended the second meeting of the Roanoke/NRV Young Republicans. I would encourage anyone of youthful age to give this group a shot. Young people tend not to be involved in the official aspects of our Party. They might support our candidates, but they don’t attend Party functions or volunteer on campaigns. Having a YR Chapter in the Valley can change that.

It takes a strong, dedicated leader to put something like this together in such a short period of time. Chris Obenshain is the driving force behind the Young Republicans and I want to commend him for a job well done.

Our next event is a Happy Hour at Mac & Bob’s in Salem on March 3rd from 6-9pm. Meetings are held on the third Thursday of the month at Famous Anthony’s in Salem at 6pm. If you have any questions about the Chapter, feel free to shoot me an email at zak@vafutureleaders.com.

Speaking of young people, Roanoke City Chair Adam Boitnott is having great success recruiting more young people into the Committee. That is great news for the future of our Party in the City.

Roanoke City Councilman Dowe Goes On A Spending Splurge

Did you see today's headline in the Roanoke Times? I am sure Democrat turned Independent Councilman Alfred Dowe got a sinking feeling in his stomach when he opened his door this morning. There he found a front page article detailing the use of his City issued credit card. It's not a flattering article. Dowe was responsible for spending nearly one half of all the money spent by Council Members. And there are 7 in total. For a politician, it's got to be one of the worst types of articles. Because it's not about your position on an issue or a vote you took. It's about you personally.

I have meet Dowe once or twice but I don't know him. So I can't say one way or the other if the spending is ethical. Let's assume he didn't do anything unethical or illegal. It still looks bad. Just because you can take trips out of town doesn't mean you should. Just because you can pay for lunches where you are talking City business doesn't mean you should. Every now and then, fine. But not all the time.

As many of you know, I worked for Senator Brandon Bell for four years. Legislators don't have expense accounts per say, but the State offers to pay for them to travel to legislative conferences in sunny places like California and Florida. These are similar to the conferences Dowe attended in New Orleans and Washington. Brandon never attended the first one. While completely ethical, Brandon was always very sensitive to this issue. He never wanted to give the sense of impropriety. Again, just because the perk is offered doesn't mean you should take it.

I know many of our elected officials are not wealthy people. And the cost of serving the public can be substantial. It's OK to use City funds to pay for some of your expenses. But when you are outspending your fellow Council members by at least three to one, you need to look at some other options. Elected officials have the option of using their privately raised campaign funds. Or they can spend some of their own money.

Dowe probably didn't act unethically. He just used poor judgment.

The Death of the Coalition?

Unlike many countries around the world, our political coalitions have been built within our two major political parties; as opposed to a coalition formed by many different parties. The Democrat coalition consists of Pro-Choicers, African Americans, gun control advocates, gay rights groups, feminists, anti-war groups, unions, just to name a few. The Republican coalition is made up of Pro-Lifers, religious groups, 2nd Amendment supporters, anti-taxers, small government advocates, military supporters and the list goes on and on. These coalitions form the backbone of our political parties. If a significant number left, neither party would have the support to function as it does today.

I have an ongoing debate with a fellow Republican in Roanoke City. This individual fashions himself as a kind of Republican gatekeeper, passing down judgment on who is and who is not a Republican. Those that do not pass the test are most commonly referred to as RINOs—or a Republican In Name Only. I was recently given this very title. I find all of this to be very divisive and destructive and not conducive to growing and strengthening our party. He and I disagree on that point.

There is indeed a movement on the Right to tear the Republican Party apart (look at how they are reacting to John McCain) and rebuild it in a more pure form. And of course, to be pure, the party must cleanse itself of anyone who does not meet the standards of a “true conservative”. Does this really make sense? I don’t think it does. Unless of course you want only a minority party that has no role in governing. But that’s not what I signed up for.

Take Jose. Jose is pro-life. He’s a gun owner. He believes in low taxes and smaller government. He home schools his children. Jose is a Republican. But Jose is also Hispanic. And he supports amnesty for illegal aliens, many of whom are his friends who have lived here for years. They are not just people caught on camera crossing the border some 2,000 miles away. Now, some would say there is no place for that belief in our party. They would say there is no place for Jose and would seek to cast him out. Where would he go? Most likely he would become an independent. Or he may even become a Democrat. But the bigger question is does casting someone like Jose out of our party make sense? Do we really need to build a coalition with people that we don’t agree with on every issue, only the vast majority of issues? I believe the answer is yes; we need those coalitions. Without them, the Republican Party will die.

House GOP Drops Another Seat

Former Delegate Albert Pollard is returning to the House, having won a special election on Tuesday for the seat vacated by Congressman Rob Whitman. If you are keeping track, we are now down to 53 Republicans in the House and have lost seats in every election cycle since 2001. What was once heralded as an impossibility now seems more and more likely to happen—the Democrats taking control of the House. The trend certainly points in that direction.

Pollard won in a solid Republican district. While a Democrat, I don’t think Pollard can be called a liberal. In other words, the Democrats are much better at running candidates that fit their respective districts. At least they have been in recent years. This is a lesson Republicans desperately need to learn and a strategy we need to implement. It is actually one of the mission’s of my PAC, Virginia’s Future Leaders.

House Budget is Good. Senate Republican’s Proposal is Better.

House Republicans passed a good budget over the weekend. They recognized the growing problems in our economy and took steps to address that. But Senate Republicans proposed a budget that was stronger on fiscal responsibility. They didn’t dip as much into the rainy day fund and kept spending under control. In a surprising showing of solidarity, most Senate Republicans broke from the Democrats and voted against their budget, which included new programs, a significant dip into the rainy day fund and a gas tax hike.

Speaking of the gas tax, Senate Democrats have made a mistake on this one. They propose to raise the tax and use the money to balance the budget—not build and improve roads. How can we ask our citizens to pay more at the pump for roads when we use that very road money for other things? We can’t and we shouldn’t. These types of proposals will make it even harder to make transportation improvements down the road. A few short months after making campaign promises to solve the problem, Senate Democrats have taken us a few steps back on transportation.

I am really a little surprised that Senate Democrats would propose spending for new programs when revenues are dropping. I shouldn't be. I think this really comes down to the Democrats carrying the water for Governor Kaine. Having to do something you probably don’t want to do is one downside of your party controlling the big house.

But the budget debate is far from over. I see an impasse on the horizon. House Republicans will never go for the new spending. The question is how far Senate Democrats are willing to go to support their Governor.

Finally, I want to thank Senators Wampler and Stosch for their leadership on Senate Finance in opposing the budget. I wonder if the anti-government Republicans now believe the internal fighting was worth having the Democrats control the Senate. I feel confident that a Republican controlled Senate would not have passed such a bad budget.

RWL Takes Me to Task Over Smith Post

The Right Wing Liberal didn't much care for my post about Ralph Smith's Big Brother school reporting bill. I know he likes Ralph, but I am surprised he likes this bill. It would seem that the RWL is in the minority on this one--the bill got only one vote in Committee. And that was a courtesy vote from Steve Newman, cast so as not to make Ralph look bad.

But this raises a bigger question. Am I not allowed to ever have a negative opinion about Ralph Smith because he defeated the person I worked for? Or, can every negative opinion I have about Ralph be driven only by bitterness? Ridiculous. And a convenient to shut down the discussion.

By the way, Ralph Smith supported HB 3202 during the campaign. Although I wouldn't expect him to admit it now.

http://rightwingliberal.wordpress.com/2008/02/18/zak-moore-gets-petty-with-ralph-smith/

Roanoke City Republicans to Support Bowers for Mayor?

I got an email over the weekend from a member of the Roanoke City Republican Committee, suggesting that our party should consider supporting David Bowers, Independent candidate for Mayor. This is the same David Bowers who was (and I presume still is) a lifelong Democrat. This is the same David Bowers that challenged our own Congressman, Bob Goodlatte. This is the same David Bowers who was the Democrat Mayor of Roanoke from 1992-2000. This is the same David Bowers who ran this year (unsuccessfully) for the Chairmanship of the Roanoke City Democrat Committee. Oh, I get it, this is an early April Fools joke. Well, maybe not. I’ve seen other emails from influential members of the Party suggesting that Republicans should support Bowers.

Is this really how we build and grow a party? By supporting a candidate who couldn’t take control of the Democrat Committee so then he comes, head down and hand out, to our party for support? It worked for Roanoke City Sheriff Octavia Johnson (ran as a Democrat and lost and then ran as a Republican and won), so maybe Bowers feels good about his chances.

I was glad to see Roanoke City Republican Chair Adam Boitnott come out against the idea. Others have done so as well. I doubt Bowers will get any official support. But it’s bad enough that the issue was even raised.

Some have said Bowers represents change. I guess everyone is the “change” candidate these days. To the contrary, Bowers is part of a group in Roanoke that wants to return the City to the dark ages. Well, they don’t put it that way but that’s what it seems like. I know it sounds nice and easy but Roanoke can’t just go back to the way it was. We’ve got to reinvent ourselves. I talk to a lot of young people in this City and I hear the same things over and over again. They want a new direction. They want a growing, lively City. Roanoke's young professionals are not obsessed with the past. They are looking to the future. We need elected officials that are doing the same. And Bowers doesn’t fit the bill.

And just to point out one ironic twist in this story…..the same people who are constantly nagging the rest of us in the Party about the RINOs (if you ever see one, be sure to take a picture) now want the Republican party to support a Democrat. So, what will you have with that plate of Hypocrisy?

Has Ralph Smith Compromised His Principles?

During the 2007 Primary campaign, we heard a lot about Ralph Smith’s principles. He talked in great detail about his belief in small government and the rights of the individual. I think it’s fair to say that most Republicans like the idea of small government (although a few in our party are really anti-government which is subject matter for an entirely different post). Ralph’s comments made for nice campaign literature and sound bites, but many of us wondered if there was any meat to it.

It turns out that Ralph may not be as big a believer in small government as he would have us think. His recent General Assembly email update failed to mention it, but Ralph introduced Senate Bill 732, which “Provides that local law-enforcement authorities shall report to the school division superintendent and to the principal or his designee all offenses, wherever committed, by students enrolled in the school if such offense would be a Class 1 misdemeanor if committed by an adult.”

SB 732 may not seem offensive on the surface, but this law would apply to a misdemeanor committed by a student in any location—on or off school property. Does the high school principle really need to know if Johnny got a speeding ticket over the weekend? I don’t think the school needs to know that—unless the offense occurs on school property. Not to mention the bureaucracy this will create at every police department in the Commonwealth. You know they will all need a new position to track and report the actions of the students within their jurisdictions. And guess who will pay for that? That’s right, Joe Taxpayer.

I was on the front line of the campaign in 2007 and I heard Ralph talk about his commitment to small government and individual rights and privacy. This bill violates every one of those principles. Fortunately for us, both Democrats and Republicans joined together to kill this “big brother” bill in Committee.

Check it out: http://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.exe?ses=081&typ=bil&val=sb732

McCain and the Kamikaze Republicans

Kathleen Parker had a good OpEd that ran in Monday's Roanoke Times. She asks this question: Are conservative Republicans willing to suffer through an Obama or Clinton Presidency, just to spite McCain.

If you didn't get a chance to read it, click here: http://dailymail.com/Opinion/kparker/200802110130