Wednesday, January 30, 2008

McCain is the Front-Runner. But is Huckabee the Kingmaker?

With his Florida win, I believe it’s fair to say John McCain has finally claimed the mantle of Republican front-runner. That being said, I don’t think we will see a complete McCain victory on Super Tuesday. There just isn’t enough time and there are two many states for any candidate to effectively compete in every one. McCain will win some, Romney will win some and Huckabee will win a handful, most likely southern States.

The great unknown is can McCain win in State primaries dominated by conservative Republicans. It can be argued that Republicans have not really given McCain his victories up to this point. Are Republicans ready to forgive his immigration policy or campaign finance reform? I think some are. But I am not sure enough of them are. Romney does seem to be gaining traction among the conservative base, especially here in Virginia.

So where does that leave Mike Huckabee? I think Huckabee is now the kingmaker, in one of two ways. Either McCain or Romney could cut a deal with Huckabee now, where he drops out of the race, they announce him as their VP and they start actively campaigning as a ticket. Unconventional, I know, but it just might work. And whoever cuts the deal secures Huck’s evangelical base of supporters. Which in a close race, may be enough to win.

The second scenario has McCain and Romney going all the way to the Convention with neither candidate at 50%. In this case, Huckabee would probably have enough Delegates to put one or the other over the top. And in doing so, secure his place on the ticket.


roanoke county republican said...

Not a bad place for Huchabee to be in..he is young (age 52), and if the GOP is fortunate enough to make it to the Big House, then Huck may be right in line for 2012/2016...
Only time will tell how this one pans out...its great to be a part of this process, on the GOP side, as well as watching the battle, or better yet, the "war" between Hillary and O'Bama... cant get much better then this!
Hold tight, its going to be a wild ride...

yoder said...

The party is really in bad shape if the best they can get is McCain.
Can anyone say Bob Dole. Oboma would wipe the floor with this old man. The only thing that can keep the White House in the GOP is Hillary.

CJBarnard said...

Its becoming evident that McCain will be the GOP front runner. Which I highly support. And while we dissagree with him on immigration, I believe we all feel the war and foreign policy takes presidence over much of America's issues. With that said, I feel comfortable with McCain at the top of the ticket.

But having Huckabee on as VP makes me all the more comfortable. A military man and a senator combined with a Governor may be like Eli Manning and Michael Strahan!